Page:A philosophical essay on probabilities Tr. Truscott, Emory 1902.djvu/103

Rh of the sea is due to the attraction of the sun and moon, so approaching certainty that it ought to leave room for no reasonable doubt. It changes into certainty when we consider that this attraction is derived from the law of universal gravity demonstrated by all the celestial phenomena.

The action of the moon upon the sea is more than double that of the sun. Newton and his successors in the development of this action have paid attention only to the terms divided by the cube of the distance from the moon to the earth, judging that the effects due to the following terms ought to be inappreciable. But the calculation of probabilities makes it clear to us that the smallest effects of regular causes may manifest themselves in the results of a great number of observations arranged in the order most suitable to indicate them. This calculation again determines their probability and up to what point it is necessary to multiply the observations to make it very great. Applying it to the numerous observations discussed by M. Bouvard I recognized that at Brest the action of the moon upon the sea is greater in the full moons than in the new moons, and greater when the moon is austral than when it is boreal—phenomena which can result only from the terms of the lunar action divided by the fourth power of the distance from the moon to the earth.

To arrive at the ocean the action of the sun and the moon traverses the atmosphere, which ought consequently to feel its influence and to be subjected to movements similar to those of the sea.

These movements produce in the barometer periodic