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CHAPTER XIV.—.

§ 2.—The Resumption of 1838. The New York Plan versus the Philadelphia Plan.

The most serious limitation on investigations in political economy and finance is that we can make no experiments, because we cannot dispose of the time and happiness of men. For this reason any historical incident which satisfies approximately the conditions of an experiment is of the highest value for the purposes of study. It is almost always the case, however, even when we find a typical instance, that we are left to infer what would have resulted if the case had contained different elements from those which it did contain. We have now before us, however, in this history, perhaps the most remarkable case that can be found of a complete experiment, at the same time and under the same conditions, of two different lines of policy. In May, 1837, the cities of New York and Philadelphia were in as nearly the same circumstances in every respect as any two communities well can be. New York adopted the policy of severe contraction, prompt liquidation and speedy re-commencement; Philadelphia adopted that of relaxation, indulgence, delay, and prolonged liquidation.

The opinion was almost universal amongst statesmen, men of business, and students of political economy that nothing could ever restore the currency but another Bank of the United States. Raguet had very much changed his ideas since 1828. He had accepted Biddle's theories of banking and was a strong adherent of the great Bank. He believed that if any bank paid specie in the midst of others which did not, it would immediately be forced to pay every one of its notes in specie, and he did not make this opinion depend on the fact that all the banks were indebted to each other. He also thought that it was "utterly impossible for banks of two or three millions of dollars capital to exercise an influence over the money concerns of a whole community." He argued that if the "government patronage" could be pledged to the Bank of the United States, it could