Page:"The next war"; an appeal to common sense (IA thenextwarappeal01irwi).pdf/20

 title of a book lately published by Colonel Repington, is only a variant on this phrase.

Prophecy concerning the trend of political affairs is not only perilous but well-nigh impossible. In all the prophecy of the late war, who foretold the future course of Russia? There were whisperings, indeed in the Allied countries, there were loud forecasts in Germany, that Russia might withdraw from the Entente; but who prophesied the curious circumstances of her withdrawal and the still more curious results to which it led? Ten European statesmen believed that Holland, Switzerland or even Spain might enter the great war to one who counted on the United States. And who, before 1917, prophesied in what manner we would be the deciding factor or even hinted at our curious influence on the peace? Who looked forward and foresaw the American flag flying over the mighty fortress of Ehrenbreitstein at Coblenz?

Such affairs as these belong to the political side of war, partake of its uncertainty. It would be foolish, therefore, for even the wisest and best-informed statesman, and still less for a journalist, to prophesy what nations or combinations of nations might oppose forces in that “next war.” The complexity of the question, involving as it does economics, internal politics, religion, sudden outbreaks of mob-mind, shifts of population, the rise of leaders as yet unknown, renders forecast impossible. Beside such a game, chess is as simple as jackstraws.